I was 7 years old when the Byrds recorded “Turn, Turn, Turn.” It hit #1 on the Billboard Top 40 in 1969. For those who understand these things, you know it is based on the actual scriptures found in the Old Testament of the Bible, the book of Ecclesiastes, Chapter 3 to be exact. True that may be, I’m sure to many listeners it was original thought to the Byrds.
To everything (turn, turn, turn)
There is a season (turn, turn, turn)
And a time to every purpose, under heaven.
I will print all of the lyrics later in this blog for your reference (and enjoyment.) But for now, I offer a very timely reason why I am referencing the song here.
So much has been made about the real estate market today. Every economist has an opinion and is quick to give their reasons based on the micros and macros of the market we are experiencing. Brilliant though I’m sure they are, the facts that need to be considered by the “regular folks” like you and me are simple, and I respectfully submit to you there is one simple reason that the market is crazy right now. The facts are these Buyers are backed up like a new ride at Disneyworld (pre-covid of course), Inventory has gotten progressively less and less in the last three years to the point that there is a feeding frenzy when a listing goes live on the market (the last record I heard was 56 contracts), and buyers are being told, “If you don’t have cash and a willingness to remove any and all contingencies from the contract, then your offer won’t even be considered.” It feels out of control, doesn’t it? The truth is much simpler, and frankly, very encouraging. In truth, no one knows the real reason the market is crazy, it’s just another “season change.”
I have been in this business for 20 years, and the one thing I can say beyond doubt is that this business of buying and selling homes is a roller coaster ride! Throw a rock in any direction and it will hit a real estate agent who agrees with me. Sometimes the best you can do is just strap yourself in and enjoy the ride as much as is possible. I have seen the advantage swing back and forth, time and time again, between seller’s markets and buyer’s markets. In that way, it’s not unlike politics. Dissatisfied? Just hold out for the next election or the one after that. The pendulum always and eternally swings!
I have had many conversations with my Sotheby’s friends from all over the world. We all say the same thing. “I have never seen a market like this!” Trust me, we said the same thing in the 1980s when interest rates on a 30 year fixed hovered at 14%. And post 9/11 when the whole world came to a screeching halt. And in 2008 when the markets and the economy crashed like a locomotive in a silent movie, and sellers were so desperate to sell they would give buyers vacations and even the Mercedes Benz parked in the garage. And now, bringing us to the present, when there is no inventory, interest rates are near zero, and buyers are struggling to even get contracts considered if they are not willing to offer up a firstborn!
So where am I going with this? When the pundits and the economic geniuses are cursing the heavens and swearing the sky is falling, be encouraged, hopeful even! My profound and wise advice based on many years, and at least as many “seasons,” is this. Take a deep breath, have a glass of good wine, and wait. Trust me when I say, if you listen ever so closely you can hear faintly in the distance, the pendulum is getting ready to swing again and probably in your favor.
To everything (turn, turn, turn)
There is a season (turn, turn, turn)
And a time to every purpose, under heaven
I promised you all the lyrics, here they are.
To everything (turn, turn, turn)
There is a season (turn, turn, turn)
And a time to every purpose, under heaven
A time to be born, a time to die
A time to plant, a time to reap
A time to kill, a time to heal
A time to laugh, a time to weep
To everything (turn, turn, turn)
There is a season (turn, turn, turn)
And a time to every purpose, under heaven
A time to build up, a time to break down
A time to dance, a time to mourn
A time to cast away stones, a time to gather stones together
To everything (turn, turn, turn)
There is a season (turn, turn, turn)
And a time to every purpose, under heaven
A time of love, a time of hate
A time of war, a time of peace
A time you may embrace, a time to refrain from embracing
To everything (turn, turn, turn)
There is a season (turn, turn, turn)
And a time to every purpose, under heaven
A time to gain, a time to lose
A time to rend, a time to sew
A time for love, a time for hate
A time for peace, I swear it's not too late